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Research · Macro · Commodities · May 18, 2026
India Oil-Shock Pass-Through: A Leontief Cascade View for a Hormuz Closure
A cross-asset view of how a Hormuz-driven oil shock transmits into India's current account, INR risk, and crude-sensitive downstream sectors.
Research · May 18, 2026
BTP-Schatz Convergence: A Johansen-Based Mean-Reversion Trade in Italian and German 2Y Yields
A working paper on a Johansen-based mean-reversion trade in Italian and German 2Y yields, with backtest results, regime checks, and open ...
May 2026
Opinion · March 29, 2026
No Exit: The Game Theory of the Iran War
A month after the US-Israel strike on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, both sides are still firing, and current incentives do not ye...
Mar 2026
Opinion · March 10, 2026
Fire on the Water: Iran, Oil, and the Strait That Rules Them All
A war that began ten days ago has delivered the largest supply disruption in oil market history — and markets still do not know whether t...
Mar 2026